Bayesian

Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna

Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past …

A coalescent-based estimator of genetic drift, and acoustic divergence in the Pteronotus parnellii species complex

Determining the processes responsible for phenotypic variation is one of the central tasks of evolutionary biology. While the importance of acoustic traits for foraging and communication in echolocating mammals suggests adaptation, the seldom-tested …

Opposition Support and the Experience of Violence Explain the Colombian Peace Referendum

What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Descriptive analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect …

Out of the Antilles: Fossil Phylogenies Support Reverse Colonization of Bats to South America

Previous phylogenies of extant short‐faced bats (Chiroptera Stenodermatina) supported either two colonization events from the mainland to the Antilles, or reverse colonization, but lacked both fossil data and statistical modelling of biogeography. …

Eating down the food chain: generalism is not an evolutionary dead end for herbivores

The role of trophic specialisation in taxonomic diversification remains unclear. Plant specialists diversify faster than omnivores and animalivores, but at shorter macroevolutionary scales this pattern sometimes reverses. Here, we estimate the effect …

Spatial autocorrelation reduces model precision and predictive power in deforestation analyses

Generalized linear models are often used to identify covariates of landscape processes and to model land‐use change. Generalized linear models however, overlook the spatial component of land‐use data, and its effects on statistical inference. Spatial …

Deforestation and Coca Cultivation Rooted in Twentieth-Century Development Projects

Most of the world's coca—the source of cocaine—is grown in the Amazonian forests of Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia. As cultivation continues despite eradication, a shift to giving farmers more incentives to abandon coca is currently proposed. Assuming …

Phylogeny and divergence times of lemurs inferred with recent and ancient fossils in the tree

Paleontological and neontological systematics seek to answer evolutionary questions with different data sets. Phylogenies inferred for combined extant and extinct taxa provide novel insights into the evolutionary history of life. Primates have an …

Bayesian hierarchical models suggest oldest known plant-visiting bat was omnivorous

The earliest record of plant visiting in bats dates to the Middle Miocene of La Venta, the world's most diverse tropical palaeocommunity. Palynephyllum antimaster is known from molars that indicate nectarivory. Skull length, an important indicator of …

A Bayesian Spatial Model Highlights Distinct Dynamics in Deforestation from Coca and Pastures in an Andean Biodiversity Hotspot

The loss of tropical forests has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. Here, we examine the conversion of forests to pastures and coca crops (illicit activity) on the San Lucas Mountain …