San Lucas

Spatial autocorrelation reduces model precision and predictive power in deforestation analyses

Generalized linear models are often used to identify covariates of landscape processes and to model land‐use change. Generalized linear models however, overlook the spatial component of land‐use data, and its effects on statistical inference. Spatial …

A Bayesian Spatial Model Highlights Distinct Dynamics in Deforestation from Coca and Pastures in an Andean Biodiversity Hotspot

The loss of tropical forests has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. Here, we examine the conversion of forests to pastures and coca crops (illicit activity) on the San Lucas Mountain …

Serranía de San Lucas, Sur de Bolívar: ¿Habrá futuro?

The San Lucas mountain range in Colombia how much conservation is owed to the violence?

The imminence of forest conversion in the northern Andean region requires a careful evaluation of the social, political and economic context in which environmental efforts take place in order to achieve conservation. Through its socioeconomic effects violent conflict can result in threats pertinent to both conservation and resource management schemes. A survey of the San Lucas mountain range, at the northern tip of the Colombian Central Andes, is presented as a case study of factors associated with violent conflict that may hinder or enhance conservation in this complex social and political setting. Instability in land use and tenure associated with armed conflict were identified as major pressures associated with further conversion of tropical forest habitats; while low rates of settlement and measures enforced by armed rule were very effective in preserving certain tracts of forest. War certainly alleviates demographic pressure from settlers, but contemporary patterns of colonization in San Lucas suggest that armed conflict is detrimental to conservation purposes and to key members of the biological community.