Criminal control shapes options for Amazon forests

Abstract

Transnational crime networks that traffic in cocaine and gold increasingly affect the forests and peoples of the Amazon. How international demand, trafficking, and impacts on Amazonian forests have changed, however, remains underexplored. We show that, annually, cocaine metabolite concentration in European sewage increased by 17% since 2011, while in the Brazilian Amazon cocaine seizures and gold royalties recently rose by ~50%, and forest loss in Peru since 2004 grew by 31% for every tenfold increase in coca cultivation. Forest loss is ~9X larger in the Amazon than elsewhere in Peru, and departments bordering Brazil record higher forest loss per unit of coca cultivation and high recent losses (2019-2023). During this period, transnational networks of violent non-state actors (VNSAs) consolidated control over borders and triple borders, fostering environmental degradation. We also explore scenarios of cocaine decriminalization and falling demand, and find neither necessarily curbs conservation impacts, as markets can bifurcate into legal and illegal portions, as gold does today, and traffickers can pivot to other activities. Instead, disarticulating VNSAs is essential for Amazon conservation. Therefore, robust, transnationally coordinated law enforcement and sustainable, legal economic alternatives are indispensable to protect Amazonian peoples and ecosystems.